Has the increase in private health insurance uptake affected the Victorian public hospital surgical waiting list?

It was anticipated that increase uptake of Private Health Insurance (PHI) would reduce demand on public sector surgical waiting lists. The best measure of changed demand is the comparison of the actual cases added to that projected given previous trends in PHI uptake. Detailed Victorian data is available up to 2000-1. The total waiting list has varied little, reflecting significant decreases in both in patients added to and removed. There was a marked increase in private sector elective surgery cases coinciding with the fall in additions to the public sector waiting list and in public sector elective surgical cases. The June 2001 Victorian surgical waiting list would have been 69,599 not 41,838 if the PHI uptake rate had continued to fall in line with pre-1999 trends, and that of June 2002 about 100,000 compared to 40,458 in March 2002. Limited data from other states suggests the Victorian trends are representative of all Australia.